Super Bowl 44

Okay – here we go into the Super Bowl 44. You might remember in week 7 I wrote that the NFC Championship would be the Saints over the Vikings and in the AFC it would be the Colts over the Patriots. Well, I got 3 of the 4 right. I also said Colts over the Saints. BUT – I now have to change my mind. Though the Colts are the favorite and I picked them in week 7, I have to take the Saints. Here’s why:

The Colts have become one dimensional. Don’t get me wrong, I think Peyton Manning might be the best QB to ever play the game; I think if you stop the passing game you stop the Colts. It will be hard to “stop” Manning, but I think you can create enough 3rd and longs to get out of some long drives. And if Peyton spends time on the bench watching his defense on the field, then that’s less time he’s on the field racking up yards.

The Colts don’t scare anyone with the run. And Peyton Manning also isn’t going to scramble for a 1st down. No need to rush him from the outside with exotic blitz packages. Manning is comfortable in the pocket and is as pure a pocket-passer as the NFL has ever seen. I say the Saints need to load up in the middle, shoot the gaps that can be created and above all else – when he throws get the hands up and try to deflect. Manning likes to keep his feet moving and knows how to throw the ball away to avoid the sack – so when playing the Colts, defenses can’t get too greedy; against the Colts an incompletion is as good as a sack.

Defensively the Colts in consecutive weeks stopped two of the best running attacks in the NFL, first the Ravens – then the Jets. BUT – neither of these teams had QBs or receivers that could take over and neither QB was able to take over the game when the run stopped. The Colts will have difficulty stopping the running attack of the Saints. The Saints need to run the ball successfully and I think they can.

The Saints linebackers need to play the game of their lives as they will be the deciding factor. The Colts don’t run, so the linebackers can eye the running backs coming out of the back field to catch the ball that Manning might be forced to throw to. The defensive backs need to pressure the Colt’s receivers right off the line. Don’t let them get off the line freely and have Manning hit them with the timing routes that they execute to perfection. And most importantly – don’t give up the long deep ball. You’ve got to have help deep in case a receiver gets past.

Offensively – the Saints have balance. They can run or throw the ball. They key to their offense on Super Bowl Sunday will be yards on 1st down. They need to average 5 yards on 1st down plays to allow them to open up their play book. Reggie Bush is finally running north-south instead of east-west (he has finally realized that NFL defensive players are faster than college defensive players).

AND – make no mistake about it – Drew Brees can be deadly accurate. Brees has a load of receivers to catch the ball and a potent running attack. Like Manning, Brees can throw all the passes but Brees can also move around a bit better than Manning.

Another reason (possibly the main one) I am picking the Saints is that Dwight Freeney might be out. But, even if he plays, he’s going to be nursing a hurt ankle. Freeney is one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL, but his game relies on speed and 268 pounds – it should be illegal to be as quick as he is. His hurt ankle is going to slow him down and take away his ability to get off his blockers. I think the Saints O-Line can handle him with only one lineman, freeing up the tight-ends to go into a pattern to catch some passes.

Both teams tackle very well and both teams are coached well. Special teams is fair on both squads so no advantage.

For the Colts to win – they’ll need their tight-ends to catch passes for yards. This is the key to the game. If the Colts establish any type of run and if the Colts tight-ends have a great game – they can win. If not – Saints.

My prediction: Saints 27 – Colts 20

If you usually go to church on a Sunday evening and elect to stay home or go out and watch the Super Bowl – enjoy it and don’t for a second feel guilty about missing church. Matthew 18:19-20 tells us “Again, I tell you that if two of you on earth agree about anything you ask for, it will be done for you by my Father in Heaven. For where two or three come together in my name, there am I with them”. Fellowship can occur at places other than church. Should you be watching the game with your church/Christian brothers or sisters, use this as a time for fun and fellowship. Should you be watching the game with someone that might not be on the road with Jesus and God – what a chance to speak to them about our Lord and Savior. Sometimes my family and I miss church on a Sunday and we do feel out of sorts for missing the service – but it’s always for something we are doing as a family. The Lord wants you to go out among the people – so go out, have fun and remember that where two or three come together in His name He is there.